What Are the Odds of an Albatross in Golf? (And 5 Things That Are Actually More Likely to Happen)

  • author Sami Mubasher
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What Are the Odds of an Albatross in Golf? (And 5 Things That Are Actually More Likely to Happen)

Introduction

Every golfer dreams of that one magical shot—the kind you’ll talk about for the rest of your life. You may know some one who brags about their hole in 1 or even the ace on a Par 4. Sure, no one was there to witness it but it totally happen!

A hole-in-one is rare enough, but the albatross (also called a double eagle) is in a league of its own. This mythical score—three under par on a single hole—requires holing your second shot on a par 5, or in rarer cases, acing a par 4.

But just how rare is an albatross? And what are the chances you’ll ever see one, let alone score one yourself? Let’s break down the numbers and compare them to everyday statistical odds that might surprise you.

The Odds of an Albatross

  • General chances: Roughly 1 in 6 million golf shots.

  • Compared to a hole-in-one: An average golfer’s ace odds are about 1 in 12,000—meaning an albatross is literally hundreds of times less likely.

  • PGA Tour stats: Despite thousands of rounds played each year, there have only been a little over 100 recorded albatrosses in PGA Tour history.

In short: if you’ve ever witnessed or achieved an albatross, you’re part of an incredibly exclusive club.

5 Things That Are More Likely to Happen Than an Albatross

I am not trying to make the albatross feel even more out of reach. Ok, maybe I am. Lets do a fun exercise to put this into perspective just how RARE an albatross really is. Here are five wild statistics that show just how astronomical the odds really are. 

1. Bowling a Perfect 300 Game 🎳

In bowling, rolling a perfect game (12 consecutive strikes) has odds around 1 in 11,500 for a regular bowler. What is really cool, is a perfect game is almost the same likelihood as a hole in one for a regular bowler. That’s thousands of times more common than an albatross.

2. Hitting a Hole-in-One ⛳

Not to diminish yours or a buddies hole in one but compared to an albatross a  hole-in-one happens hundreds of times more often. Even amateur golfers record aces daily across the world, but an albatross remains a unicorn.

3. Winning a Slot Machine Jackpot 🎰

The odds of hitting a jackpot on a typical Las Vegas slot machine average around 1 in 1.6 million—making you almost four times more likely to hit the jackpot than to sink an albatross. I feel like this gonna turn a lot of golfers into gamblers. Although maybe many of you already were!

4. Catching a Ball at a Major League Baseball Game ⚾

FanGraphs and ESPN estimate the odds of catching a foul ball or home run at an MLB game to be about 1 in 835. Compare that to 1 in 6 million for an albatross—and you realize just how legendary that golf shot is.

5. Dating a Supermodel 💃

According to demographic research, the odds of the “average guy” dating a fashion model are around 1 in 88,000. Still rare, but thousands of times more likely than holing out for an albatross.

Frequently Asked Questions About Albatrosses

Q: Has Tiger Woods ever made an albatross?
A: Despite his legendary career, Tiger has never recorded an albatross in competition. This highlights just how rare it is, even at the highest level.

Q: What’s rarer—a condor or an albatross?
A: A condor (four under par, such as a hole-in-one on a par 5) is even rarer than an albatross, with only a handful of reported cases worldwide.

Q: Which holes make albatrosses most common?
A: Par 5s that are reachable in two shots are the best chance. Par 4 aces are possible but nearly impossible for average golfers.

Q: Can technology or modern golf equipment make albatrosses more common?
A: Yes, longer drivers, softer greens, and high-performance golf balls increase the chance slightly—but the odds remain astronomically low.

Why Golfers Love the Chase

The pursuit of an albatross adds magic to golf. It’s one of those achievements that blends luck, skill, and storytelling power. While most players may never experience one, just knowing it’s possible keeps golf exciting.

And who knows? Maybe your next round could make you part of one of the rarest clubs in all of sports.

Conclusion

An albatross in golf is so rare that you’re more likely to roll a perfect game in bowling, hit a Vegas jackpot, or even date a supermodel. But that’s the beauty of golf—it’s the game of possibility. Every shot brings a chance at history, and every golfer carries that dream.

So while the odds may not be in your favor, the pursuit of the albatross is part of what makes golf so thrilling. Keep swinging, and maybe one day, you’ll defy the numbers.